War in Iran: Wall Street Moving Forward in the Fog

Traders on Wall Street, New York, March 2, 2026. CHARLY TRIBALLEAU/AFP A quick glance at the major US stock indices does not reveal that a major geopolitical event has just taken place in the Middle East, threatening one of the world's main trade routes and energy supply for a part of the planet. On Monday, March 2nd, the S&P 500 (+0.04%), the Dow Jones (–0.15%), and the Nasdaq (+0.36%) showed remarkable stability before losing some ground on Tuesday (approximately –1% each), far from the drop in European markets (-3.46% for the CAC40, -2.75% for the Footsie in London, -3.59% for the German Dax on Tuesday) or Asian markets (-12% in Seoul, -4% in Tokyo on Wednesday March 4th). Read also | LIVE, Iran: Israel announces having 'completed a new wave of strikes' in Iran; Tehran claims to have targeted Israeli and American targets. Is this to say that the US market is immune to the effects of the war in Iran, or are investors betting on a short-lived and relatively painless conflict? Above all, uncertainty seems to prevail at this stage. The indices experienced very strong intra-day variations with losses of 2.5% mid-session on Tuesday, followed by a recovery towards the end of the day following Donald Trump's announcements on securing maritime transport in the Strait of Hormuz. The Vix, dubbed 'the fear index', which measures market volatility, briefly rose to 28 points on Tuesday, its highest level in several months.